On this page I intend to have a go at forecasting the weather. This will include convective weather which will mean upcoming severe weather forecasts and alerts (although these I will also put on the main page). I also want to try and tell you the best places to be in order to intercept these events. For now I will concentrate on NW England unless I am asked otherwise, or a really big chance of severe weather could affect another part of the UK or the UK on the whole.
To join in and have your say, or even have ago at forecasting the weather yourself please join my facebook page The North West Chaser Facebook Page
To join in and have your say, or even have ago at forecasting the weather yourself please join my facebook page The North West Chaser Facebook Page
2 Convective Weather Forecasts Are In Place- please see below:
AREA 1
Region(s): NW England
Issued: 08.40, 7th September 2010
Threat(s): Thunderstorms, Hail,
*The low located to the West of the UK has made itself known as its really dominated the weather over the last couple of days. Today is no different.
According to the GFS at 15z, todays temps are expected to reach around 17°C by mid afternoon, at this time GFS forecasts SBCAPE upto 1102j/kg, MLCAPE upto 500j/kg and LI's of -4. A cold front is expected to pass the region before this which could bring some heavy showers and if solar insolation is able to take place, then also thunderstorms are possible. EQL temps of -40 and an upper trough could allow moderate sized hail to form and also some strong lightning. Deep Layer Shear is quite weak at only 20 knots and Low Level Shear seems none existent so the chance of funnel clouds and tornadoes is low.
(The Skew-T shows the PT crossing the ELR at 300hpa, with this and the EQL temps of -40, cells could become quite tall (upto 30,000 feet) and have nice anvils so some photogenic storms could occur).
AREA 2
Region(s): SW England, Wales, Midlands, N.Ireland, NE England, SE Scotland
Threat(s): Thunderstorms, Hail, Flash Flooding, Funnel Clouds, Tornaodes
For other parts of the country the SW has already seen some thunderstorms this morning and more are expected throughout the day with these moving N into Wales. There is also a chance of storms in the midlands.
In N.Ireland more rain is expected to hit the region today, so on top of what has already landed flooding is likely, to make it worse storms are also possible which could bring heavy rainfall in a short space of time which does cause a risk of flash flooding. The highest CAPE is expected to the S of Lough Neagh (upto 600j/kg CAPE with LI's of -2 forecast) so a few storms could occur here.
In NE England and SE Scotland there is also high CAPE values of upto 800j/kg with LI's of -3 along with a convergence zone (CZ) Deep Layer Shear of 30 knots and Low Level Shear between 20 & 35 knots so a few good storms with the chance of funnels and tornadoes are possible in this region!
