Tuesday, 21 September 2010

Crazy Convection- 3 Different Counties


Well I firstly want to apologise for the lack of updates recently. I am opening my own garage so I have been really busy with that and I havent had much time to update the site, to be honest over the past 10 days I have hardly checked the GFS which is highly unlike me.
Anyway...


I intend to make this account a little different to my normal accounts. As I have spent alot of time this year chatting to fellow chasers Martin McKenna and Paul Martin both of N.Ireland, I have asked them both to do a short account each of their recent weather events, such as the recent flooding and storms. They have both sent in great accounts so please read on...

September has been a month of mixed weather here in the NW. We have had some stormy weather with gale force winds, plenty of rain and a few days were Cb's have developed. Now the synoptics are showing high pressure is set to dominate the weather over the coming days so we are to expect some sunshine with warmer and drier weather, which is all good, but we are missing out on the main systems from the atlantic which usually affect the weather throughout autumn. This high pressure is actually set to force hurricane Igor up the E coast of the USA and Canada, if the high pressure wasnt there then the remnants of the hurricane would have hit us, giving us some decent storms no doubt... what us chasers would do for a good storm.

Well I had spent some time chatting to Martin Mckenna and Paul Martin, both storm chasers from N.Ireland on how much we would all enjoy one last summer chase before the autumn storms arrive. Martin and Paul had both experienced torrents of rainfall which caused rivers to burst their banks, flooding areas across the region so they both had been out taking images and video of the floods, but this still didnt quench their hunger for more t-storms.


Video of the flooding taken by Paul Martin

The GFS had been looking rather boring for a few days but it had been hinting that the 7th could produce a few storms across NW England, N.Ireland, SW England, Wales, Midlands, NE England, SE Scotland.

On the 7th september I decided to get a convective forecast on the site for two areas-
Area 1 NW England
Area 2 SW England, Wales, Midlands, N.Ireland, NE England, SE Scotland.

The GFS was hinting that the NW could have a better chance of storms as moisture was in the region of 1100j/kg with instability at -4 along with other factors which suited decent cell development.

I was up quite early on the 7th watching the sky as I wanted to know what was developing, where, and when! It started quite slow for me, I needed clear skies throughout the day to allow the sun to do its thing and heat up the surface ready for an explosive afternoon. However this didnt exactly go to plan as clouds rolled in throughout the morning, however, they never fully blocked out the sun and by midday a few towers were going up.

I was sat around waiting, watching the sky and watching the radar. I noticed a few intense showers making their way into Wales, and other showers becoming stronger across the different forecast regions but still none of them were close to hitting me. I decided to check the Sat images and the Sferic charts to see if I could see any cells forming which were not dropping rain. Eventually I saw a cell form across Cheshire to my S but its path was to go to far E of me.

Not having wheels has made this year a bad one as I have hardly been able to chase, I have spent my time storm spotting and watching as they have either just missed me or passed over me. If I had some wheels I would have been chasing these cells and getting into the thick of the action.

Sitting around was quite boring knowing other reachable regions had t-storms or heavy precip cells passing by, it was a hard blow to take, but as usual, I stuck at it, not willing to give up till the sun had set.

Eventually my patience paid off. The sky had cleared and the sun was boiling. The surface was warm and the atmosphere was unstable. Then a few clouds passed by and in the distance to my W was a developing Cb. I looked to the S and another Cb had formed exhibiting decent towers, both with huge anvils. The fun had begun!

Cell to my W with a huge anvil




I couldnt believe my luck, it was 13.40BST and I had two decent cells in the sky.

Cell to my S with towers and huge anvil

The cell to the S soon collapsed but the one out to the W remained for quite some time, and the radar showed it intensifying. I could hear a few rumbles but it was to bright to see any of the lightning. The rumbles got quite loud but then the storm seemed to die off and I was left with nice blue sky with the odd cloud around.

15.00BST was approaching, this was the time of the day that the Skew-T and GFS was showing the most moisture and insatbility, but looking outside didnt really hint towards developing storm cells. It was still sunny and very warm, then without warning, exlosive convection rocketed up from behind the rooftops across the street. Within minutes an area of updraught had rocketed a small cumulus cloud up into the atmosphere, it was widening and growing rapidly.

Rocketing tower, rapidly rising

I couldnt believe how fast this thing was rising, the only thing I could think of, was how cool it would be if my car was running, I would have been after these cells in a flash.

I looked to the SW to see another Cb had developed again with a huge anvil, this was just behind the rapidly developing tower.

Third Cb of the day, just behind the explosive convection

I couldnt believe how 3 Cb's had developed in no time at all. All with huge anvils and decent structure, 2 of which organised enough to produce lightning and decent rumbles, which I could hear from miles away! I sat back for a couple of minutes and checked the radar. Less than 5 minutes from taking the 1st image of the explosive convection and I was in for another treat.

Less than 5 minutes later and look how much it has grown


A Cb to my SW, explosive convection to my W, I didnt know what to do with myself. I hadnt witnessed cells developing this fast all year, and I dont remember the last time I saw convection explode upwards like that. I was snapping away with the camera, filming with the webcam and constantly watching this develop. I decided to get one image with the towers together using the 50mm lens. I wish I had got one with the 28mm lens, that way I may have got the Cb and updraught tower in the same image .

Line of towers deveoping to the W

It didnt take long before it had drastically changed again. I was to busy trying to live stream that I never got any images after this.

As many of you will know, when a rising parcle of air has reached the EQL (Equilibrium Level), it is at the same temperature to the surrounding air so it becomes stable and convection stops. This level is often very high up and can be indicated as the anvil of a t-storm because it is where the t-storm updraught is usually cut off, except in the case of overshooting tops which are found in storms with a very strong updraughts such as Supercells.

Well this tower soon hit the EQL and rapidly spread across the sky with a huge anvil. More of the smaller towers rose and eventually it became a monster Cb. The downside to this was the way alot of low lying cloud rolled in, blinding my view of this beauty.

It was a day that started boring, quickly becoming awesome. Some decent Cb's developed, best convection of the year by far occured. Heard a few rumbles and saw one flash of lightning. If I had wheels, this could have been one of my best days ever in storm chasing but unfortunatley the wheels I had were'nt turning and I was stuck to my house to watch these monsters pass by.

Since this day occurred I have since fixed my car and got her running. I have a few adjustments to to before I get it in for the M.O.T, but this means next year I will have a chase vehicle. I am hoping next year I will also have a small van, so if this is the case, I will be stepping chases up alot next year, as I intend to chase with a fully loaded vehicle of camera equipment, laptop with mobile internet and even a few gadgets to record wind speed, wind direction, rain fall, pressure drops and much more. All in the name of science. It will also be good experience for the trip of a lifetime I am hoping to do, when I travel the great plains in search of the most powerful thunderstorms and tornadoes mother nature has to offer!!!

Meanwhile Paul Martin in N.Ireland was experiencing different scenes:-

Tuesday 7/9/10
After the heavy rainfall of the previous 36 hours i knew there would be flooding scenes around the local areas so i planned to get up early and out with the camera. Once out on the road it was evident that the heavy and prolonged rainfall had caused plenty of disruption and numerous rivers and streams had burst their banks onto farmland and property. Some places in Ireland had recorded over 100mm rain from this event.

Here is a few images from Omagh and surrounding areas.



 

Wednesday 8//9/10
The outlook for this day was quite good with plenty of CAPE available into the evening, so it was fingers crossed for some convective action and maybe a storm or two. I had been online from late morning discussing the days prospects with storm chasing friends Martin McKenna and Danny Power. I was also keeping an eye on the radar and weather charts.  The first sign that the sky was coming to life was the sight of this nice cell approaching. This is shot from my back garden.



Things were kicking off so i decided to drive to one of my favourite locations, the Pigeon Top outside Omagh where there is a great view across the surrounding countryside and on a clear day you can see forever.  On arriving i was treated to a nice rainbow but the best scene of the day was this gust front feature with huge towers visible. It was approaching from the west with a heavy precipitation core visible underneath.  It was great to sit here and watch the convective clouds grow and mature and release their rain over the countryside below. With a load of images in the bag i headed home and hoped it wouldn't be too long to the next potential storm day.



Unfortuanley Paul doesnt have his own site yet, so to see more of his amazing work, you will just have to hold on until he gets one. Fingers crossed it wont be to long.

And Martin Mckenna had it different once again. He wrote:-


Mid September presented me with five days in a row of storm chasing, these days varied from marginal to very ‘interesting’ set-ups, some of these produced a few unexpected surprises due to unpredicted high shear-low CAPE environments. Most of these convective opportunities were the result of an unstable post frontal airmass while others boasted life from pre-frontal forcing. During this five day period I must have undertaken at least 10 local chases in the Maghera area covering afternoon, evening, and sunset periods in the hope of catching a nice photo opportunity. The most fun day saw me near Tobermore watching decent convection firing up as a trough moved in, I parked near the local Vets and had a great view of a line of solid updraught towers arranged in a bowed shape covering many miles of sky, the bases of these were solid, black, and sported the potential for funnel formation. I was literally parked under the bases when I encountered an irate farmer who interrogated me about what I was doing, he didn’t believe I was storm chasing so I had show him my images, even after this I got a bad vibe so I moved position and parked up at the Moyola bridge where I had watched a significant flood in progress two days earlier caused by 48 hours of non stop heavy rainfall.

I watched a spectacular gust front form in this area with the best Whale’s Mouth structure of the year as the threatening towers grew stronger in the afternoon heat, precip broke out and the cell came to life, it looked for all the world like a storm without the lightning, this was due to problems with warm air aloft however the structure was worth it despite the lack of sparks. As arranged I met with local chaser Declan O’Doherty at the river and together we chased that cell through the country roads at swift speed as torrential rain reduced visibility and flooded roads splashed waves of water over the windows, the two of us in pursuit through these treacherous roads reminded me of the scene from the movie Twister when all the chase vans navigated similar roads and hills with music trumpeting loudly, it was quite a thrill which brought a smile to my face!.  We stopped numerous times to shoot the vast flooded fields which looked more like lakes. During the late afternoon we missed the best storms of the day over E NI in the direction of Antrim, these cells shot up from nowhere and began spitting out c-g’s with purpose, from Maghera the clouds parted and we saw those amazing anvils to the NE which were the most majestic I had seen this year and beautiful beyond description, they where tens of miles away and too far to catch but we enjoyed watching their menacing profiles against the skyline and felt somewhat jealous that others would be having a good show under them.

Whales mouth and gust front near Tobermore on Sept 7th
September 11th was the most exciting of all with 900+ CAPE so big storms were expected and the build-up chat with Paul and Danny on facebook added to the pulse rate. The action began early for me when I saw a large line of cells approaching from the W with huge anvils blowing downwind to the E, the sky below was dark blue with that classic thundery colour, big towers and convective cells where going up ahead of this thing on the outflow so I wasted no time getting in the car. I chased this line all the way from Maghera to Ballyronan while stopping ½ dozen times to take images from the quiet country roads, I had a fun time driving along while holding my video camera out the window for much of the journey. I intercepted the storm perfectly at Lough Neagh and let it pass over me, it then fell apart over the Lough and came to nothing, at this time of year the Lough as been cooler which hampers the ‘food’ a storm cell requires, this meal consists of warm moist air, had this been earlier in the year then I could have hit the jackpot. I was back out again before sunset with Declan watching towers and cells sporting bows as the clouds turned warm before the day ended. Some of these cells remained until well into the night which made for a spectacular sight with towers and anvils surrounded by stars.

Line of cbs outside Ballyronan on Sept 11th
I had more local chases on the 8th, 9th and 12th thanks to unexpected cell development in a sheared wind profile, big convection bubbled up so I chased to Glenshane where I watched nice inflow motion under a cb which almost touched the ground. That same evening an extremely intense cell moved in from the S and dumped a remarkable torrential downpour over my home town which made quite a sound!, behind the precip was a beast of a wall cloud hanging over Maghera with lively inflow motion, I raced out in the car and parked ahead of it and watched as it transformed shape while exhibiting vertical motion and rotation, at one stage it was like a vertical barrel and similar to a funnel, the lowering broke up however behind I watched amazing inflow at the back of the cell, to see ragged cloud getting sucked into the base at such high speed was quite a shock and more like a scene from US supercells. I intercepted another high precip cell behind this one which had Meso characteristics at the rear with well separated inflow/outflow. This was a day of nasty weather but shocking it only came from 200 CAPE, wind shear makes all the difference!

The 12th saw further heavy showers and more rotation straight above my home!, a large black lowering dropped down and spun in plain sight for 10 min’s as I watched in awe from my back door with my Sister who couldn’t believe how fast the rotation was and for a moment I thought a tornado was likely, if there had been one there would have been damage to homes in this area, however it wasn’t to happen this day as the lowering turned shallow and vanished back into the cloud base, the scene reminded me of a diver wearing a grotesque bloated black suit diving below the surface of the water to stir the bottom of the ocean (ground) before returning to the surface again. So that was that, five days of action which produced a rollercoaster ride of emotion with thrills and spills which resulted in 60+ images at the coast of fuel, however this is what chasing is all about, if you’re not in you can’t win!.

Martin McKenna

To see more of Martins amazing work please visit his website  www.nightskyhunter.com If you would like to see more of Martins amazing storm chases please click here

I would like to thank Paul and Martin for contributing to this account, and I would like to thank you all for reading.

Friday, 10 September 2010

Convective Forecast for 10/09/10 & 11/09/10

3 Convective Weather Forecasts Are In Place (set over 2 days)- please see below:

Day 1 (10/09/10)
Region(s): N.Ireland, SW Scotland
Issued: 10.00, 10th September 2010
Threat(s): Thunderstorms, Hail, Funnel Clouds

The charts this morning for 21z tonight, just off the W coast of Ireland show Dewpoint temps of 12C and temps of 13C so low cloud bases along with Low, Mid and High layer clouds around along with SBCAPE of upto 700j/kg & MLCAPE upto 500j/kg with LI's of -3. An upper trough and EQL temps of -40C could mean night time lightning and with precipitable water at only 2.46mm then hail is likely. A Cz giving horizontal shear just off the coast along with DLS of 30 knots could help any cells sustain themselves along with a risk of FC's, the heaviest of the showers are expected N of N.Ireland across the sea making their way towards Scotland (according to GFS & NAE). I think something could occur but I also think it will happen over the West coast but given the fronts moving N of N.Ireland then a few embedded storms could occur out to sea amongst those heavy showers. These showers are within an unstable airmass from the remnants of hurricane Earl.

Day 2 (11/09/10)
AREA 1
Region(s): NW England
Issued: 10.00, 10th September 2010
Threat(s): Thunderstorms, Hail, Funnel Clouds, Weak Tornadoes.

With SBCAPE of 200-300j/kg MLCAPE upto 100j/kg with LI's of -1. Dewpoint temps at 14C and temps at 16C means low cloud bases. DLS of 50 knots could allow any cells to become organised and sustain themselves and LLS upto 20 knots means the odd weak funnel cloud could form and given the low cloud bases any FC's which do form also have the risk of touching down. EQL temps at -20 an upper trough, freezing level at 750hpa, and precipitable water of 2.12mm means hail is a possibility and also slight chance of lightning. Only marginal but definatley a chance of seeing a funnel cloud in the morning from the base of any updraught towers. Two forms of lift around for tommorrow as well in the way of frontal systems and orographic lifting, both could play apart and act as the 'trigger' needed to give the lift to initiate convection.

Day 2 (11/09/10)
AREA 2
Region(s): N.Ireland
Issued: 10.00, 10th September 2010
Threat(s): Thunderstorms, Hail, Funnel Clouds

A better set up is over N.Ireland where there is also a chance of storms tommorrow. The current GFS run for 15z tommorrow has the highest CAPE around the Lough with SBCAPE upto 900j/kg MLCAPE upto 500j/kg with LI's of -3. Dewpoint temps at 13C with temps at 16C. EQL temp at -15 with a freezing level between 800-750hpa, an upper trough with cool air aloft & Precipitable Water (PW) at 2.13mm means hail is likely with a risk of lightning. DLS is weak at only 20 knots but the convergence at the lough were the 'sea' breeze meets the environmental flow could help with storms becoming more organised and also a small chance in funnel formation. A few frontal systems also expected to pass the region throughout the day so these could act as the trigger for storms to develop from.

Tuesday, 7 September 2010

Convective Forecast - 07/09/10

2 Convective Weather Forecasts Are In Place- please see below:

AREA 1
Region(s): NW England
Issued: 08.40, 7th September 2010
Threat(s): Thunderstorms, Hail,

*The low located to the West of the UK has made itself known as its really dominated the weather over the last couple of days. Today is no different.

According to the GFS at 15z, todays temps are expected to reach around 17°C by mid afternoon, at this time GFS forecasts SBCAPE upto 1102j/kg, MLCAPE upto 500j/kg and LI's of -4. A cold front is expected to pass the region before this which could bring some heavy showers and if solar insolation is able to take place, then also thunderstorms are possible. EQL temps of -40 and an upper trough could allow moderate sized hail to form and also some strong lightning. Deep Layer Shear is quite weak at only 20 knots and Low Level Shear seems none existent so the chance of funnel clouds and tornadoes is low.

(The Skew-T shows the PT crossing the ELR at 300hpa, with this and the EQL temps of -40, cells could become quite tall (upto 30,000 feet) and have nice anvils so some photogenic storms could occur).

AREA 2
Region(s): SW England, Wales, Midlands, N.Ireland, NE England, SE Scotland
Threat(s): Thunderstorms, Hail, Flash Flooding, Funnel Clouds, Tornaodes

Similar to above for the cold front and upper trough but slightly different forecast for each region.

For other parts of the country the SW has already seen some thunderstorms this morning and more are expected throughout the day with these moving N into Wales. There is also a chance of storms in the midlands.

In N.Ireland more rain is expected to hit the region today, so on top of what has already landed flooding is likely, to make it worse storms are also possible which could bring heavy rainfall in a short space of time which does cause a risk of flash flooding. The highest CAPE is expected to the S of Lough Neagh (upto 600j/kg CAPE with LI's of -2 forecast) so a few storms could occur here.

In NE England and SE Scotland there is also high CAPE values of upto 800j/kg with LI's of -3 along with a convergence zone (CZ) Deep Layer Shear of 30 knots and Low Level Shear between 20 & 35 knots so a few good storms with the chance of funnels and tornadoes are possible in this region!

Friday, 3 September 2010

Facebook

Hey guys,

I just want to thank everyone who has viewed my site. Please join my facebook page The North WestChaser and interact with all the users. Have a go at forecasting yourself, ask questions and most of all enjoy yourself. On the facebook page you can see the photos that dont make the POD, and meet other people with the same interests as yourself.

Also if you would like a photo to be on the facebook page, and in with a chance of making the POD please send them to thenorthwestchaser@gmail.com

Thanks

Dan