The down side to this is there hasnt been much happening in the way of storms, well not until the morning of June 29th 2010.
Lets go back to the weekend beginning 26th June and start from the beginning.
Well the weekend had looked quite promising for much of the UK with high CAPE values for much of the country. Over N.Ireland it was looking quite promising for the whole weekend where chasers there were keeping a close eye on the charts, radar and sattelite so they could make a judgement on were to head out to. Martin McKenna of www.nightskyhunter.com was out on the chase on saturday with Connor McDonald in hope of catching another monster cell, this they did, on both days. Please visit his site at the upper link for more info.
I was sat at home watching the radar and sattelite myself, and I kept a close eye on the sky for any signs of deep convection. All day from mid morning convection was taking place but the dominating high pressure was putting a cap to it and preventing it from exploding into life.
Above is the convection not being able to hold and falls apart.
As the day wore on the convection was becoming more and more meaningful, and by evening the cap seemed to have given way allowing the convection to explode, and explode it did. All across the southern portion of the sky, deep convection was taking place with towers shooting up at quite an alarming rate, the classic 'cauliflower' appearance formed on the clouds.
Above is the convection finally rising in the SE
After seeing this going up I started to get excited. I thought we were going to finally get a good storm with lightning atlast. Another look out a while later showed more convection forming.
More cauliflower in the sky. This is looking east
My girlfriend picked me up and we went back to her house, closer to the higher ground in hope of a better vantage point. Sadly this proved to be a waste of time, so we went in hers whilst she ate her dinner. I kept looking out of the window to keep an eye on the convection to see if it was able to organise. Sadly it didnt and the whole thing just fell apart so saturday was a bust day.
Sunday and the GFS wasnt being so nice to us, with low CAPE values over the NW, but I already knew through previous marginal set ups that rotation and funnels were possible in a low CAPE environment. A look at the different weather forecasting sites showed us to be in a thunderstorm watch area. I checked the GFS again, this time checking everything not just CAPE.
It still wasnt looking to good for me but the east coast of England and into Yorkshire was looking promising and being not to far away from Yorkshire there was always that small chance a cell or 2 popping up and moving over, although this seemed very unlikely I had to wish.
But this is what was happening:-
The high pressure that had dominated the UK was to break down slightly and exit the UK into the North Sea thanks to an upper trough associated with a depression centred off the NW coast of Scotland. By 18z, GFS was suggesting that temperatures of 24C and dew-points of up to 20C would be present. SBCAPE was forecast to reach up to 1400 J/Kg and MLCAPE of around 750-1000 J/Kg by 18z, and LI down to -6. A tounge of moist air would extend over the region at 850hPa. Although there was some doubt as to the extent in the severity of the convection there was the potential due to deep layer shear of around 30knts which may help any convection/storms contain themselves. A convergence zone where a sea-breeze contacts the environmental flow could allow convection to develop and provide enough low-level shear for the development of some funnel clouds and perhaps some tornadoes, which should largely be weak in nature.
So it was looking like there was potential for some decent storms, perhaps the odd funnel and maybe even a weak tornado/spout to form.
Skywarn Uk had an AMBER warning out for the East of England, East Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber. Which made me feel abit gutted that yet again we wasnt in it.
I was hoping that with the clear skies and baking sun that dirunal heating would occur and cause the marginal set up of 200j/kg to cause some convection to occur. This has happened before and we got some awesome rotating cells and a funnel form.
It seems as though the flat land from the coast and the hills of the Darwen Moors and the Pennines come into play alot in my location causing convergence zones through the orographic lifting and sea breeze fronts, so marginal set ups are often good set ups here.
Although im in what seems a prime location far marginal set up events, nothing happened which was a shame, I knew deep down nothing would. A little look through the different forecasting sites and there was talk of storms breaking out on monday but the GFS didnt confirm it, so I forgot about the weather for one day.
On Monday the 28th June there was still talk of possible storms developing throughout the UK during the day. Another look at the GFS again didnt confirm anything it just looked as though clouds and rain could form in the afternoon before the weather was to turn more unsettled during the night. A look at the Met Office site again just showed showers forecast before heavy rain was to move in. I knew a cold front was pushing in during the night from the west but with only small CAPE and positive LI's being shown on the GFS I just assumed it would rain. But boy was I wrong.
I went to bed monday night at around 22.00hrs, but I could'nt sleep, I was getting a little excited at the fact I go to Olu Deniz in Turkey for a 2 weeks all inclusive holiday on July 1st. So I lay in bed with my ipod on hoping to pass time until I was tired enough to nod off. I checked the time and it was now 23.54hrs so I decided it was time to turn the ipod off and try to go asleep without any aid. I rolled over and sat my ipod on my bedside table, this is when I heard the rain battering off my bedroom window. It was so peaceful knowing I was inside a nice warm room laying on a comfy bed whilst the rain was pouring down outside. It was nothing out of the ordinary so I just closed my eyes and drifted off. It was quite a warm muggy night, which made sleeping a little awkward, so I kept drifting in and out of sleep, I could hear the rain still on my window, it had calmed down alot so I opened my window a little wider to let more cooler air enter my room. Whilst at the window I had a look around the sky but it was just full of low lying rain clouds so I jumped back in bed I fell back asleep almost straight away.
A little while later I was awakened by a loud bang, it sounded like an explosion, I dived up out of bed wondering what on earth was going on, I looked out of the window again to see flashes across the sky. It was thundering. Big beautiful blue and purple C-g's lit up the night sky, more I'c's shot across the sky but strangely no more rumbles occured for quite some time. After a few minutes of an awe inspiring lightning extravaganza the rain bands swept in, each one heavier than the last until the core struck. Flashes lit up the rain and low lying cloud in more beautiful blues and purples. The rain was stupidly heavy and lasted for atleast 10 minutes, more flashes still lit up the sky as it moved from west to east. Eventually the sky started clearing as this cell moved on, a nice clear sector formed where a few stars could be seen. Behind this clear slot was another cell forming giving off the odd flash, but all the sky was still being lit by flashes from the 1st cell so I went onto the landing so I could see the back end of the 1st cell as it left. The most insane cloud to cloud flash I have ever seen occured, it was bright blue and extended across most of the south eastern sky. At this point I realised I hadnt used my camera for any of it, so I dashed back into my room grabbed it and dashed back onto the landing. I tried getting a photo but due to the street lights the photos were over exposed so I decided to film it. Sadly it was moving away quite quickly so I only managed a few minutes were only a few strikes happened.
I decided to go back to my room to see if the cell behind was still producing but it was'nt, it seemed to have moved on a slightly more eastern track so it had passed by without getting to me. With this happening and the sky not looking favourable for more lightning I decided to get back in bed and call it a night. A few hours later around 06.00hrs I was awoke to yet another bang. Another cell had moved in. I couldnt believe my luck. I was up again watching but the flashes were dim and I only knew most of them had occured when I heard the rumbles. I was tempted to stay up and keep a track of it and see if anymore cells were approaching, but I decided sleep was more important and got back into bed. Good call on my behalf as only rain fell all morning. When I got up at 07.45 I decided to check the charts and the Sferics. Look at what had happened:-
Look at the state of the strike rate for a night time storm. Pretty impressive
A look at the Met Office sattelite showed the earlier cell nicely as it had moved east and steadily strengthened.
I decided to have a quick check on facebook to see what others had said about the nights events. People were complaining that they could'nt sleep because the thunder was to loud. Others were frightened and wanted it to stop.
Then a check onto the GFS and the latest run was showing some good CAPE at 500-600j/kg with LI down to -2. Amazing how each run can differ so much from the last.
With the first thunder storm I have seen this year in the bag I can honestly say I am over the moon as this was the best thunderstorm I have seen since July 2009. It was definatley worth the lack of sleep and I hope to see more when I return to the UK. I am now definatley ready for my holiday and you never know, I could be chasing in Turkey next.
